North Korea rapidly advancing nuclear weapon enrichment accompanied by a sustained missile drills by Kim Jong-Un will land the World in a catastrophic war.
The testing of “Hydrogen-bomb” over the weekend by North Korea regime, causing ripples and vibration around neighboring countries including China is indicative of an imminent danger to the World.
In context, the “Hydrogen Bomb” is reported to be eight times more powerful than the Uranium-Plutonium fission bomb termed “Little Boy” the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 during the second world war.
Since then, the world has come very close to witnessing another nuclear conflict, notably the standoff between America and Russia, but the scenario today is far more dangerous because of one factor; The toxic combination of President Trump and Kim Jong-Un, both egomaniac and inexperience in world politics, at least in diplomacy.
During the United States Presidential Election, Hilary Clinton said Donald Trump can be baited by a tweet and should not be trusted with the American Nuclear button, while this may be true, Kim Jong-un’s actions and missile testing are more than a tweet, not least the threat to attack Guam and the missile that flew over Japan prompting an emergency UN summit followed by the usual condemnation and sanctions.
Event has reached fever pitch with the latest underground test by North Korea and significant escalation of rhetoric from the US, the most notable been the contribution by Defense Secretary, General Mattis who warned North Korea of Massive Military response, he went on to state in no uncertain terms that the US has many military options and the president have asked to be brief on all options.
South Korea tested missile of its own on Monday to test its readiness for all out war against the North, while Seoul is preparing to install the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) owned by the US, so the stage is set.
Russia, China, and Japan are all stakeholders in this area and Japan is in harm’s way, thus they are not bystanders.
However, despite the tension, despite the Adrenaline filled media reporting, most analysts believe we are not closer to a war, but i think not. I think we are very close to a full blown war, all it need is a miscalculation by North Korea.
America is not likely to preemptively attack North Korea because that will be indefensible but America has a commitment to Japan and South Korea to protect them. A miscalculated test hitting targets in either country will probably be met with force.
I said not likely, left to the vices of only Trump, without his somewhat reasonable Army generals and the congress, i think the likelihood of a preemptive strike is significantly high
In the event of miscalculation whereby North Korea, in the process of testing, hit a target considered forbidden by the Americans, Donald Trump’s grand posture means he has no choice than to retaliate. If the words of Trump and General Mattis are anything to go by, retaliation would be on the scale never seen before.
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO THIS MISCALCULATION:
Every time North Korea conducts a test, we are a step closer, as it now appears that every test is a step over the previous one, and every test bolster the confidence of the regime, and so consequently, sooner or later, there would be mass casualties as a result of a target been hit, either deliberately or not and that is the danger here.
WHAT CAN BE DONE:
It is an emergency situation, something had to give here. Trump’s ego means he is not likely to back down on his words, Kim Jong-Un detachment from the world and reality means he does not grasp the enormity of the situation. So, we have a toxic combination of two people that think with their rear orifices sitting on a weapon capable of wiping significant amount of people off the face of the earth with a click of a finger, it does not look good.
China, the only known ally of North Korea does not seem capable of reigning the regime in. China’s influence may have been overrated, as it is unlikely that China is allowing this to go on when they can actually do something about it. I will argue that China’s stake based on proximity and economic ties are even higher than those of the Americans, thus would not continue to encourage an escalating situation when they can prevent one.
The UN nation has almost exhausted all economic sanctions possible with zero effect, thus it seems military solution is the only solution, yet the military solution is the worst possible solution.
Wait, how can the worst possible solution be the only solution?
There is one more solution, it is called dialogue. it is not appeasement, it is only seen as an appeasement by the egomaniac sitting in the white house.
No matter how stupid Kim Jong-Un is, and am not underrating this at all, the world has more to lose in an all out nuclear war with him. I believe the preservation of World peace is worth sacrificing one’s ego for if that is what it takes for Trump to pipe down.
President Obama achieved a landmark Nuclear disarmament with Iran, even though this was described as a nonsense by many of his detractors, at least the world has not melted away. he did this by sacrificing his ego, persistently pursuing a peaceful resolution and even baiting Iran with economic relief and reintroduction into committee of Nation.
All is not rosy still with Iran, in fact, they have been accused of breaking the agreement, but they are farther away from blowing Isreal up with a nuclear bomb than they were before Obama. Trump can do the same and save the world from a 3rd world war.